Insights and Discoveries

Tightening global regulations are redefining the disposable e-cigarette market, widening the gap between compliant and non-compliant products and reshaping global competition.

As disposable e-cigarettes continue to expand globally, product innovation is shifting toward nicotine-free alternatives, against a backdrop of increasingly stringent regional regulations that are redefining market access and competitive dynamics.

The global disposable e-cigarette market shows sharp concentration: 41% consumed in North America, 60% sold online. What forces are shaping this landscape, and which players will lead the next phase?

The disposable e-cigarette segment is the key growth driver within the expanding global novel tobacco market. Surging 55% to $5.4B in 2023, it is projected to reach ~$7.0B in 2024 and is positioned to reshape the industry landscape.

Italy was one of Europe’s earliest adopters of heated tobacco (HNB) products. However, with the EU’s flavored heated tobacco ban, shifting excise structures, and macroeconomic pressures, the Italian HNB market has transitioned from rapid expansion to a structural slowdown phase. Despite decelerating growth, HNB remains the key driver of Italy’s tobacco market transformation, with future progress tied to premium-stick innovation and regulatory developments.

As one of the most open and internationalized tobacco markets in the Middle East, the UAE is entering a crucial phase of heated tobacco (HNB) expansion. Supported by the ECAS certification framework, digital tax stamp tracking, duty-free channels, and affluent expatriate demand, the UAE HNB market recorded a 15.8% CAGR from 2020–2024—one of the fastest growth rates globally. Although the market remains device-heavy with limited stick repurchase frequency, clearer regulation, strong tourism-driven demand, and PMI’s closed device–stick ecosystem are positioning the UAE as a strategically significant market for global HNB brands.